Northeast Pacific Shark Biology, Research, and Conservation
Pinniped Life History
Optimal Life Histories: Modeling the Way Forward
Life history analysis in pinnipeds is fraught with difficulties. Longitudinal studies in which individuals are studied throughout their lifetimes can only be carried out on a narrow range of accessible populations and they are expensive and logistically complex to maintain over the time periods (usually decades) required to achieve useful results. Cross-sectional studies are extremely limited in what they can tell us about the dynamics of life histories, and commercial harvests, the usual source of these data, are a thing of the past. We have to find a new way forward.
To date, almost all studies of pinniped life histories have been empirically based and, as pointed out in this description, they have highlighted the interactive nature of parameters such as longevity and reproductive rate. A modeling framework is required in order to allow these interactions to be investigated, to make better use of the data sets that already exist, and to identify critical gaps in the empirical data.
If a pinniped is to maximize its lifetime fitness F, then it must choose the optimal allocation of resources to reproduction through its lifetime. Thus, F=fl+f2+f3…fn, where fa is the fitness contribution from year a in the life of the pinniped, which lasts n years. We know that there are certain functional relationships between maternal size or condition and the probability that mothers will reproduce or survive. If we assume that the relationship between offspring condition and its ultimate fitness is asymptotic, then, up to a certain level, the more energy that a female delivers to her offspring the greater will be her fitness. If the energy delivered to an offspring (ea) is a proportion p of the energy available to the mother, then from what we know of the growth patterns and the energetic efficiencies of pinnipeds, it is possible to estimate the energy available for reproduction throughout the life span of an average individual. By setting rules that an individual will only reproduce if it has a sufficient excess of energy above that required for maintenance, we may be able to investigate the life history patterns in different environments as well as the effects of stochastic variability in food availability on life histories.
Many of the dynamic relationships described here should become explicit in the results of such an energy-based life history model. Similarly, such a model could help the interpretation of some of the crosssectional population data in the context of dynamic life history processes. This type of approach seems to be essential if progress is to be made in pinniped life history analysis and for the full implications of life history analysis to be realized. Because the mechanism underlying population trajectories is the sum of individual life histories, understanding the environmental factors that affect life histories is fundamental to understanding population and species viabilities.

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